Most Important Stats Going Into Atlanta & Lime Rock Park
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 8:46 PM
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Cup: Quaker State 400
NASCAR superspeedway racing is probably the most difficult-to-predict discipline in all of motorsports. Nearly every driver is lined up nose to tail from lap 1 to the checkered flag due to the draft, and the dreaded "Big Ones" can wipe out all the favorites in an instant. But unlike Daytona and Talladega, Atlanta (now known as Echo Park Speedway) tends to be a little more dependent on equipment and driver skill, as its shorter 1.5 mile length and tighter turns prevent drivers from going full throttle all the way around the track.
Looking at last year's summer Atlanta race, team average speed on pit road (time on pit road excluding in-box time) while under caution was far and wide the most important stat for predicting the race results. Gaining positions on pit road and thus gaining track position is definitely important at Atlanta, where it's a bit more difficult to make passes than at the other superspeedways, but with no correlations higher than 58%, I would definitely not recommend diving into pit road stats (or really any other individual stats) to place bets or make fantasy picks this weekend.
This past spring's Atlanta finishing order was even less predictable with no stat cracking 50% correlation, but for what it's worth, apparently drivers with good recent stage 1 finishing positions were the most likely to have a good finish.
Then looking back to all the points-paying superspeedway races last year and so far this year, there is simply nothing to see as you can probably tell from DNQ stats being at the top.
Note: Refer to the notes at the bottom of the page for explanations of each stat
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (2025 Summer Atlanta)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | avg_yellow_pit_driver_roll3_general_team | 0.5880200766 | 0.5880200766 |
| 2 | avg_yellow_pit_driver_roll10_general_team | 0.5020637899 | 0.5020637899 |
| 3 | avg_yellow_pit_driver_lag1_tracktype_team | 0.482739212 | 0.482739212 |
| 4 | is_win_roll10_general | 0.4701577058 | 0.4701577058 |
| 5 | is_win_roll10_general_carteam | 0.4683169891 | 0.4683169891 |
| 6 | avg_green_pit_crew_roll3_track_team | 0.4598499062 | 0.4598499062 |
| 7 | avg_green_pit_driver_roll3_tracktype_team | -0.4544090056 | 0.4544090056 |
| 8 | laps_led_roll3_tracktype | 0.4385072723 | 0.4385072723 |
| 9 | laps_led_roll3_tracktype_carteam | 0.4385072723 | 0.4385072723 |
| 10 | is_win_roll30_general_team | 0.4378831956 | 0.4378831956 |
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (2026 Spring Atlanta)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | stage_1_position_roll3_tracktype_team | 0.4938856849 | 0.4938856849 |
| 2 | caution_pit_gained_lost_lag1_track_team | -0.4927886487 | 0.4927886487 |
| 3 | average_restart_speed_roll10_general | -0.4658058869 | 0.4658058869 |
| 4 | stage_1_position_roll3_tracktype | 0.4538091313 | 0.4538091313 |
| 5 | stage_1_position_lag1_tracktype | 0.4435082351 | 0.4435082351 |
| 6 | stage_1_position_lag1_general | 0.4435082351 | 0.4435082351 |
| 7 | stage_1_position_lag1_tracktype_carteam | 0.4435082351 | 0.4435082351 |
| 8 | stage_1_position_lag1_general_carteam | 0.4435082351 | 0.4435082351 |
| 9 | best_lap_speed_roll10_tracktype | -0.4428274428 | 0.4428274428 |
| 10 | stage_1_position_roll30_general | 0.4360433308 | 0.4360433308 |
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (All Superspeedway Races in 2025 & 2026)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | is_dnq_roll30_general_carteam | 0.2572938239 | 0.2572938239 |
| 2 | BestLapRank_roll10_general | 0.2544741296 | 0.2544741296 |
| 3 | is_dnq_roll10_tracktype_carteam | 0.2532023427 | 0.2532023427 |
| 4 | is_dnq_roll10_tracktype | 0.2436529158 | 0.2436529158 |
| 5 | BestLapTime_roll10_general_carteam | 0.2420228288 | 0.2420228288 |
| 6 | avg_yellow_pit_crew_roll3_general_team | 0.2413874918 | 0.2413874918 |
| 7 | stage_1_position_roll10_general | 0.2392167196 | 0.2392167196 |
| 8 | BestLapRank_roll10_general_carteam | 0.2386774961 | 0.2386774961 |
| 9 | is_dnq_roll30_general | 0.2385049213 | 0.2385049213 |
| 10 | BestLapTime_roll10_general | 0.2348948578 | 0.2348948578 |
O'Reilly: Focused Health 250
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In the summer Atlanta O'Reilly Series race last year, drivers with a good superspeedway closing position (running position in the last 10% of the race) were the most likely to have a good finish, but unfortunately for all the gamblers and fantasy players looking to make use of that information, the last 10% of the race is typically where the biggest wrecks and various other unpredictable factors come into play.
This past spring's Atlanta race had a finish for the ages that saw Sheldon Creed finally win his first race, but as to be expected, the finishing order was all over the place due to many of the usual front-runners and mid-pack drivers wrecking out, and lots of usual backmarkers sneaking into the top 20. Still, there seemed to be some meaningful correlation between drivers who have historically performed well at Atlanta doing so again this past spring. For instance, Nick Sanchez who won his first career race in last year's summer Atlanta race, still managed to finish in third place with the declining AM Racing team. Sanchez, who will be driving for Peterson Racing this weekend, will definitely be one to watch.
Like the Cup Series however, there is essentially no single stat that accurately predicts finishing position at recent superspeedway races in general.
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (2025 Summer Atlanta)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | closing_ps_lag1_tracktype | 0.558686738 | 0.558686738 |
| 2 | closing_ps_lag1_tracktype_carteam | 0.5192318222 | 0.5192318222 |
| 3 | diff_laps_roll10_general_carteam | 0.4925014156 | 0.4925014156 |
| 4 | quality_passes_roll3_general | -0.4913743829 | 0.4913743829 |
| 5 | diff_laps_roll10_general | 0.4873563686 | 0.4873563686 |
| 6 | num_long_stops_lag1_tracktype | 0.4786756175 | 0.4786756175 |
| 7 | average_restart_speed_roll10_general | -0.4649305176 | 0.4649305176 |
| 8 | stage_2_position_roll10_general | 0.4574555465 | 0.4574555465 |
| 9 | mid_ps_roll3_general | 0.45284881 | 0.45284881 |
| 10 | stage_2_position_lag1_general | 0.4522767319 | 0.4522767319 |
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (2026 Spring Atlanta)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | is_top_15_roll3_track_carteam | -0.5097193332 | 0.5097193332 |
| 2 | fast_laps_lag1_track_carteam | -0.4909352516 | 0.4909352516 |
| 3 | laps_led_lag1_track | -0.4842356364 | 0.4842356364 |
| 4 | best_lap_speed_lag1_track_carteam | -0.4832263688 | 0.4832263688 |
| 5 | qualifying_speed_roll10_tracktype_carteam | -0.4799595142 | 0.4799595142 |
| 6 | BestLapTime_roll10_tracktype_carteam | 0.4787449393 | 0.4787449393 |
| 7 | laps_led_roll3_track | -0.4630996482 | 0.4630996482 |
| 8 | stage_1_position_roll3_track_carteam | 0.4555031676 | 0.4555031676 |
| 9 | avg_ps_roll3_track_carteam | 0.452443337 | 0.452443337 |
| 10 | avg_ps_lag1_track_carteam | 0.4512251813 | 0.4512251813 |
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (All Superspeedway Races in 2025 & 2026)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | is_win_roll5_track_team | -0.2886352127 | 0.2886352127 |
| 2 | laps_led_roll3_track_carteam | -0.2868865305 | 0.2868865305 |
| 3 | top15_laps_roll3_track_carteam | -0.2788482067 | 0.2788482067 |
| 4 | stage_2_position_roll10_general | 0.2772933775 | 0.2772933775 |
| 5 | stage_1_position_roll10_general | 0.2745910759 | 0.2745910759 |
| 6 | BestLapRank_roll10_general_carteam | 0.2723587794 | 0.2723587794 |
| 7 | is_top_10_roll30_general | -0.2717016992 | 0.2717016992 |
| 8 | rating_roll10_general | -0.2707671339 | 0.2707671339 |
| 9 | BestLapRank_roll30_general_carteam | 0.2688705737 | 0.2688705737 |
| 10 | BestLapTime_roll10_general_carteam | 0.2682979062 | 0.2682979062 |
Trucks: LiUNA 150
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If last year's inaugural Truck Series race at Lime Rock Park is anything to go by, make sure to keep a close eye on past practice speeds, as all 10 of the stats most correlated to finishing position in last year's race were practice-related...and not even road course practice sessions, but just practice in general, and with surprisingly high correlation. Many of these practice stats are also based on 'carteam' rather than driver (ex: TRICON Garage 1 truck), which does make sense considering many of the top teams have at least one 'all-star' truck that is almost certain to be driven by a road course ringer on tracks like Lime Rock, and those road course ringers typically don't have much NASCAR driver data to go off of.
Expanding our scope to all road course races last year and so far this year, the top 3 stats are all related to raw practice and qualifying speed prior to the race, so pay extra close attention to the fastest drivers in this weekend's pre-race sessions.
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (2025 Lime Rock)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BestLapTime_roll10_general_carteam | 0.7708174179 | 0.7708174179 |
| 2 | OverAllAvgRank_roll30_general | 0.7677616501 | 0.7677616501 |
| 3 | OverAllAvgRank_roll10_general | 0.7576984993 | 0.7576984993 |
| 4 | OverAllAvgRank_roll10_general_carteam | 0.7574877839 | 0.7574877839 |
| 5 | BestLapRank_roll10_general_carteam | 0.7471721972 | 0.7471721972 |
| 6 | OverAllAvgRank_roll30_general_carteam | 0.7430099312 | 0.7430099312 |
| 7 | OverAllAvg_roll10_general_carteam | 0.7417876241 | 0.7417876241 |
| 8 | BestLapTime | 0.7411764706 | 0.7411764706 |
| 9 | BestLapRank_roll30_general_carteam | 0.7411764706 | 0.7411764706 |
| 10 | BestLapRank | 0.7411764706 | 0.7411764706 |
Top 10 Stats Correlated to Finishing Position (All Road Course Races in 2025 & 2026)
| rank | feature | raw_correlation | abs_correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BestLapRank | 0.4980102607 | 0.4980102607 |
| 2 | qualifying_speed | -0.4677211094 | 0.4677211094 |
| 3 | BestLapTime | 0.4669186289 | 0.4669186289 |
| 4 | short_team_speed_roll10_general_carteam | 0.4162249511 | 0.4162249511 |
| 5 | short_team_speed_roll30_general_carteam | 0.415479669 | 0.415479669 |
| 6 | closing_ps_roll3_tracktype | 0.4120058861 | 0.4120058861 |
| 7 | qualifying_speed_roll10_general_carteam | -0.4109879218 | 0.4109879218 |
| 8 | rating_roll30_general | -0.406432762 | 0.406432762 |
| 9 | starting_position_roll30_general_carteam | 0.4060673565 | 0.4060673565 |
| 10 | top15_laps_roll30_general_carteam | -0.405751468 | 0.405751468 |
Explanations of Stats:
- lag1 = one race prior
- roll{x} = average over the past {x} races
- general = driver-only data
- carteam = car number + team data (ex: 2026 Hendrick 48 carteam data includes all of Alex Bowman, Anthony Alfredo, and Justin Allgaier's stats for their respective races in the Hendrick 48 car)
- team = team-only data, taken by averaging the values of each driver on the team in the particular race
- tracktype = only data from similar tracks to the current track (ex: short tracks, intermediates, road courses, etc.)
- track = only data from the current track
- rating = NASCAR's official driver rating score, published in their Loop Data. Refer to Driver Averages for more details on how it is calculated.
- short_team_speed = measures short run speed by averaging the driver's top 20% fastest laps in the race
- long_team_speed = measures long run speed by averaging the driver's top 80% fastest laps in the race
- avg_ps = driver's average running position throughout the race
- BestLapRank = driver's rank in practice, based off their fastest lap
- OverAllAvgRank = driver's rank in practice, based off their average lap
- true_points = the points system used in the official NASCAR Fantasy Live game (the same as the normal points system, except giving points to series-ineligible drivers)
- is_top_{x} = finished in the top {x} in the race
- mid_ps = driver's running position at the halfway point in the race
- top15_laps = number of laps the driver spent running inside the top 15 in the race
- closing_ps = driver's running position with 10% of the race left to go
- avg_yellow_pit_crew = driver's average time in the pit box during caution flag stops over the course of the race
- avg_green_pit_crew = driver's average time in the pit box during green flag stops over the course of the race
- avg_yellow_pit_driver = driver's average time on and off pit road (excluding the time spent in the pit box) during caution flag stops over the course of the race
- avg_green_pit_driver = driver's average time on and off pit road (excluding the time spent in the pit box) during green flag stops over the course of the race
- num_long_stops = number of pit stops longer than 25 seconds for Cup, and longer than 30 seconds for O'Reilly and Trucks
- quality_passes = number of green flag passes a driver makes while running inside the top 15
- diff_laps = number of laps down a driver finishes to the winner
- best_lap_speed = driver's fastest lap speed in the race
- fast_laps = number of laps in which the driver records a faster time than anyone else that lap