Model Prediction Accuracy & Comparisons
Visual comparisons of Statcar's probability and finishing order accuracy against commercial sportsbooks and industry metrics
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💰 Vegas Odds Comparison & Market Vig
| Track Name | Date | Pre/Post P&Q | Oddsmaker | Win Brier | Top 3 Brier | Top 5 Brier | Top 10 Brier | Win Log Loss | Top 3 Log Loss | Top 5 Log Loss | Top 10 Log Loss | Win Vig | Top 3 Vig | Top 5 Vig | Top 10 Vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  BetMGM | 0.011 | 0.053 | 0.085 | 0.146 | 0.043 | 0.183 | 0.279 | 0.446 | 46.1% | 43.6% | 48.3% | 35.7% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  DraftKings | 0.012 | 0.052 | 0.083 | 0.157 | 0.047 | 0.175 | 0.282 | 0.481 | 53.8% | 36.0% | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  FanDuel | 0.011 | 0.052 | 0.083 | 0.161 | 0.042 | 0.181 | 0.277 | 0.482 | 48.9% | 34.7% | 39.1% | 37.2% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  Statcar | 0.026 | 0.062 | 0.083 | 0.150 | 0.101 | 0.205 | 0.271 | 0.438 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.027 | -- | -- | -- | 0.110 | -- | -- | -- | 38.3% | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.026 | -- | -- | -- | 0.111 | -- | -- | -- | 44.6% | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.026 | -- | -- | -- | 0.106 | -- | -- | -- | 38.7% | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.026 | 0.066 | 0.094 | 0.145 | 0.109 | 0.214 | 0.296 | 0.436 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.022 | 0.062 | 0.105 | 0.175 | 0.082 | 0.209 | 0.346 | 0.525 | 35.4% | 51.3% | 55.0% | 73.2% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.023 | 0.063 | 0.104 | 0.171 | 0.090 | 0.220 | 0.341 | 0.509 | 48.6% | 48.0% | 63.0% | 52.8% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.023 | 0.063 | 0.106 | 0.173 | 0.092 | 0.216 | 0.351 | 0.517 | 42.8% | 31.7% | 48.7% | 43.5% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.021 | 0.062 | 0.106 | 0.173 | 0.077 | 0.221 | 0.344 | 0.508 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| North Wilkesboro Speedway | 07/19 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.027 | 0.064 | 0.100 | 0.196 | 0.105 | 0.206 | 0.316 | 0.572 | 40.4% | 40.9% | 30.8% | 32.1% |
| North Wilkesboro Speedway | 07/19 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.027 | 0.068 | 0.104 | 0.213 | 0.108 | 0.221 | 0.320 | 0.606 | 51.6% | 32.6% | 32.2% | 15.2% |
| North Wilkesboro Speedway | 07/19 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.026 | 0.070 | 0.108 | 0.207 | 0.106 | 0.230 | 0.336 | 0.591 | 43.2% | 23.8% | 27.9% | 28.0% |
| North Wilkesboro Speedway | 07/19 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.027 | 0.072 | 0.103 | 0.222 | 0.104 | 0.237 | 0.315 | 0.618 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway | 07/26 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.027 | 0.077 | 0.097 | 0.159 | 0.123 | 0.264 | 0.302 | 0.483 | 42.1% | 52.1% | 45.1% | 38.7% |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway | 07/26 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.026 | 0.074 | -- | 0.163 | 0.124 | 0.256 | -- | 0.506 | 43.9% | 34.6% | -- | 27.9% |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway | 07/26 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.026 | 0.073 | 0.096 | 0.161 | 0.115 | 0.247 | 0.294 | 0.493 | 41.9% | 28.8% | 28.6% | 26.5% |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway | 07/26 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.027 | 0.077 | 0.097 | 0.155 | 0.127 | 0.260 | 0.298 | 0.464 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Iowa Speedway | 08/09 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.026 | 0.053 | 0.086 | 0.153 | 0.098 | 0.180 | 0.283 | 0.467 | 63.2% | 68.3% | 68.0% | 51.2% |
| Iowa Speedway | 08/09 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.027 | 0.049 | 0.083 | 0.159 | 0.104 | 0.169 | 0.274 | 0.498 | 44.4% | 32.9% | 39.7% | 29.8% |
| Iowa Speedway | 08/09 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.026 | 0.049 | 0.080 | 0.153 | 0.101 | 0.165 | 0.259 | 0.478 | 42.0% | 28.5% | 27.3% | 27.4% |
| Iowa Speedway | 08/09 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.027 | 0.054 | 0.081 | 0.138 | 0.100 | 0.178 | 0.265 | 0.431 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Richmond Raceway | 08/15 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.024 | 0.070 | 0.097 | 0.139 | 0.089 | 0.235 | 0.303 | 0.422 | 36.9% | 33.6% | 38.2% | 39.2% |
| Richmond Raceway | 08/15 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.024 | 0.066 | 0.092 | 0.132 | 0.091 | 0.215 | 0.287 | 0.401 | 50.6% | 36.7% | 38.0% | 22.6% |
| Richmond Raceway | 08/15 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.025 | 0.068 | 0.094 | 0.132 | 0.093 | 0.233 | 0.300 | 0.407 | 42.6% | 34.2% | 35.3% | 24.2% |
| Richmond Raceway | 08/15 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.027 | 0.073 | 0.098 | 0.144 | 0.122 | 0.256 | 0.302 | 0.429 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| New Hampshire Motor Speedway | 08/23 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.022 | 0.062 | 0.084 | 0.138 | 0.079 | 0.212 | 0.267 | 0.438 | 49.7% | 40.3% | 36.1% | 33.8% |
| New Hampshire Motor Speedway | 08/23 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.021 | 0.062 | 0.082 | 0.131 | 0.076 | 0.217 | 0.267 | 0.423 | 48.9% | 31.7% | 33.0% | 15.5% |
| New Hampshire Motor Speedway | 08/23 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.022 | 0.065 | 0.087 | 0.140 | 0.077 | 0.219 | 0.273 | 0.439 | 46.2% | 34.4% | 27.3% | 27.7% |
| New Hampshire Motor Speedway | 08/23 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.023 | 0.072 | 0.082 | 0.139 | 0.086 | 0.240 | 0.263 | 0.428 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Daytona International Speedway | 08/29 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.024 | 0.071 | 0.113 | 0.201 | 0.110 | 0.269 | 0.383 | 0.592 | 42.3% | 37.1% | 24.1% | 23.6% |
| Daytona International Speedway | 08/29 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.024 | 0.070 | 0.114 | 0.204 | 0.105 | 0.263 | 0.386 | 0.596 | 47.2% | 53.0% | 69.5% | 60.0% |
| Daytona International Speedway | 08/29 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.024 | 0.070 | 0.113 | 0.203 | 0.112 | 0.266 | 0.380 | 0.590 | 40.1% | 29.9% | 19.7% | 18.8% |
| Daytona International Speedway | 08/29 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.024 | 0.069 | 0.113 | 0.195 | 0.108 | 0.251 | 0.385 | 0.565 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Darlington Raceway | 09/06 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.025 | 0.059 | 0.084 | 0.130 | 0.103 | 0.195 | 0.267 | 0.403 | 45.8% | 30.6% | 28.0% | 23.8% |
| Darlington Raceway | 09/06 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.025 | 0.060 | 0.080 | 0.130 | 0.096 | 0.196 | 0.252 | 0.404 | 47.8% | 40.7% | 41.2% | 29.2% |
| Darlington Raceway | 09/06 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.025 | 0.060 | 0.085 | 0.131 | 0.097 | 0.202 | 0.270 | 0.406 | 38.5% | 32.5% | 33.3% | 25.2% |
| Darlington Raceway | 09/06 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.025 | 0.056 | 0.078 | 0.155 | 0.101 | 0.179 | 0.243 | 0.474 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
📈 Comparative Season Averages
| Metric | Statcar | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brier Score Averages | ||||
| Win Brier | 0.025 | 0.024 | 0.023 | 0.023 |
| Top 3 Brier | 0.066 | 0.063 | 0.063 | 0.063 |
| Top 5 Brier | 0.093 | 0.093 | 0.094 | 0.095 |
| Top 10 Brier | 0.162 | 0.162 | 0.162 | 0.160 |
| Log Loss Averages | ||||
| Win Log Loss | 0.103 | 0.095 | 0.094 | 0.094 |
| Top 3 Log Loss | 0.224 | 0.215 | 0.218 | 0.217 |
| Top 5 Log Loss | 0.298 | 0.301 | 0.304 | 0.305 |
| Top 10 Log Loss | 0.479 | 0.492 | 0.489 | 0.483 |
| Market Vig Averages | ||||
| Win Vig | -- | 48.1% | 42.5% | 44.0% |
| Top 3 Vig | -- | 38.5% | 30.9% | 44.2% |
| Top 5 Vig | -- | 43.7% | 31.9% | 41.5% |
| Top 10 Vig | -- | 31.3% | 28.7% | 39.0% |
🎯 Projected Finishing Results Accuracy
| Track Name | Date | Statcar Spearman | Racing Insights Spearman | Statcar MAE | Racing Insights MAE | # Cars In Race | Distance | # of Lead Changes | # of Leaders | % Caution Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daytona International Speedway | 02/15 | 0.133 | 0.258 | 12.488 | 10.976 | 41 | Normal | 65 | 25 | 16.0% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 02/22 | 0.231 | 0.228 | 10.526 | 10.737 | 38 | Overtime | 57 | 14 | 24.7% |
| Circuit of The Americas | 03/01 | 0.465 | 0.470 | 8.162 | 8.108 | 37 | Normal | 14 | 9 | 10.5% |
| Phoenix Raceway | 03/08 | 0.358 | 0.440 | 9.459 | 8.811 | 37 | Normal | 23 | 8 | 27.6% |
| Las Vegas Motor Speedway | 03/15 | 0.838 | 0.832 | 4.500 | 5.111 | 36 | Normal | 21 | 9 | 7.5% |
| Darlington Raceway | 03/22 | 0.532 | 0.448 | 7.730 | 8.216 | 37 | Normal | 16 | 8 | 8.9% |
| Martinsville Speedway | 03/29 | 0.787 | 0.803 | 4.865 | 4.757 | 37 | Normal | 8 | 6 | 13.5% |
| Bristol Motor Speedway | 04/12 | 0.623 | 0.604 | 6.378 | 7.135 | 37 | Overtime | 12 | 4 | 14.3% |
| Kansas Speedway | 04/19 | 0.675 | 0.601 | 6.703 | 7.297 | 37 | Overtime | 17 | 7 | 7.3% |
| Talladega Superspeedway | 04/26 | -0.106 | -0.002 | 14.550 | 13.950 | 40 | Normal | 52 | 16 | 16.0% |
| Texas Motor Speedway | 05/03 | 0.426 | 0.414 | 8.158 | 7.895 | 38 | Normal | 23 | 11 | 15.0% |
| Watkins Glen International | 05/10 | 0.524 | 0.473 | 8.158 | 8.842 | 38 | Normal | 6 | 4 | 12.0% |
| Charlotte Motor Speedway | 05/24 | 0.353 | -- | 10.103 | -- | 39 | Shortened | 32 | 13 | 20.1% |
| Nashville Superspeedway | 05/31 | 0.290 | 0.332 | 10.789 | 10.316 | 38 | Normal | 31 | 15 | 25.7% |
| Michigan International Speedway | 06/07 | 0.246 | 0.208 | 10.811 | 11.027 | 37 | Normal | 23 | 11 | 27.0% |
| Pocono Raceway | 06/14 | 0.671 | 0.637 | 6.789 | 7.105 | 38 | Normal | 17 | 11 | 14.4% |
| San Diego Street Course | 06/21 | 0.310 | 0.215 | 9.846 | 10.132 | 39 | Normal | 20 | 13 | 14.7% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | 0.572 | 0.617 | 7.389 | 6.778 | 36 | Normal | 8 | 6 | 7.3% |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | 0.524 | 0.538 | 7.316 | 7.684 | 38 | Normal | 28 | 13 | 16.1% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | 0.551 | 0.528 | 8.053 | 8.474 | 38 | Overtime | 30 | 10 | 18.6% |
| North Wilkesboro Speedway | 07/19 | 0.646 | 0.576 | 7.297 | 8.216 | 37 | Normal | 17 | 9 | 9.6% |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway | 07/26 | 0.466 | 0.407 | 9.026 | 9.128 | 39 | Normal | 15 | 11 | 16.9% |
| Iowa Speedway | 08/09 | 0.363 | 0.371 | 8.944 | 9.056 | 36 | Normal | 9 | 6 | 12.9% |
| Richmond Raceway | 08/15 | 0.683 | 0.730 | 6.378 | 6.162 | 37 | Normal | 29 | 10 | 7.8% |
| New Hampshire Motor Speedway | 08/23 | 0.540 | 0.528 | 7.500 | 7.944 | 36 | Normal | 15 | 7 | 16.9% |
| Daytona International Speedway | 08/29 | 0.179 | 0.106 | 12.462 | 12.846 | 39 | Overtime | 41 | 22 | 13.9% |
| Darlington Raceway | 09/06 | 0.694 | 0.679 | 5.947 | 6.105 | 38 | Normal | 29 | 12 | 12.0% |
📈 Season Accuracy Averages Summary
| Metric / Competitor | Statcar |  Racing Insights |
|---|---|---|
| Spearman Rank Correlation (Higher is Better) | 0.466 | 0.463 |
| Mean Absolute Error (Lower is Better) | 8.53 | 8.57 |