Model Prediction Accuracy & Comparisons
Visual comparisons of Statcar's probability and finishing order accuracy against commercial sportsbooks and industry metrics
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💰 Vegas Odds Comparison & Market Vig
| Track Name | Date | Pre/Post P&Q | Oddsmaker | Win Brier | Top 3 Brier | Top 5 Brier | Top 10 Brier | Win Log Loss | Top 3 Log Loss | Top 5 Log Loss | Top 10 Log Loss | Win Vig | Top 3 Vig | Top 5 Vig | Top 10 Vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  BetMGM | 0.011 | 0.053 | 0.085 | 0.146 | 0.043 | 0.183 | 0.279 | 0.446 | 46.1% | 43.6% | 48.3% | 35.7% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  DraftKings | 0.012 | 0.052 | 0.083 | 0.157 | 0.047 | 0.175 | 0.282 | 0.481 | 53.8% | 36.0% | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  FanDuel | 0.011 | 0.052 | 0.083 | 0.161 | 0.042 | 0.181 | 0.277 | 0.482 | 48.9% | 34.7% | 39.1% | 37.2% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | Post-P&Q |  Statcar | 0.026 | 0.062 | 0.083 | 0.150 | 0.101 | 0.205 | 0.271 | 0.438 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.027 | -- | -- | -- | 0.110 | -- | -- | -- | 38.3% | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.026 | -- | -- | -- | 0.111 | -- | -- | -- | 44.6% | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.026 | -- | -- | -- | 0.106 | -- | -- | -- | 38.7% | -- | -- | -- |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.026 | 0.066 | 0.094 | 0.145 | 0.109 | 0.214 | 0.296 | 0.436 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | BetMGM | 0.022 | 0.062 | 0.105 | 0.175 | 0.082 | 0.209 | 0.346 | 0.525 | 35.4% | 51.3% | 55.0% | 73.2% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | DraftKings | 0.023 | 0.063 | 0.104 | 0.171 | 0.090 | 0.220 | 0.341 | 0.509 | 48.6% | 48.0% | 63.0% | 52.8% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | FanDuel | 0.023 | 0.063 | 0.106 | 0.173 | 0.092 | 0.216 | 0.351 | 0.517 | 42.8% | 31.7% | 48.7% | 43.5% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | Post-P&Q | Statcar | 0.021 | 0.062 | 0.106 | 0.173 | 0.077 | 0.221 | 0.344 | 0.508 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
📈 Comparative Season Averages
| Metric | Statcar | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brier Score Averages | ||||
| Win Brier | 0.024 | 0.021 | 0.020 | 0.020 |
| Top 3 Brier | 0.063 | 0.058 | 0.057 | 0.057 |
| Top 5 Brier | 0.094 | 0.094 | 0.094 | 0.095 |
| Top 10 Brier | 0.156 | 0.164 | 0.167 | 0.161 |
| Log Loss Averages | ||||
| Win Log Loss | 0.095 | 0.082 | 0.080 | 0.078 |
| Top 3 Log Loss | 0.213 | 0.198 | 0.198 | 0.196 |
| Top 5 Log Loss | 0.304 | 0.312 | 0.314 | 0.313 |
| Top 10 Log Loss | 0.461 | 0.495 | 0.499 | 0.485 |
| Market Vig Averages | ||||
| Win Vig | -- | 49.0% | 43.4% | 39.9% |
| Top 3 Vig | -- | 42.0% | 33.2% | 47.5% |
| Top 5 Vig | -- | 48.2% | 43.9% | 51.7% |
| Top 10 Vig | -- | 40.7% | 40.3% | 54.5% |
🎯 Projected Finishing Results Accuracy
| Track Name | Date | Statcar Spearman | Racing Insights Spearman | Statcar MAE | Racing Insights MAE | # Cars In Race | Distance | # of Lead Changes | # of Leaders | % Caution Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daytona International Speedway | 02/15 | 0.133 | 0.258 | 12.488 | 10.976 | 41 | Normal | 65 | 25 | 16.0% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 02/22 | 0.231 | 0.228 | 10.526 | 10.737 | 38 | Overtime | 57 | 14 | 24.7% |
| Circuit of The Americas | 03/01 | 0.465 | 0.470 | 8.162 | 8.108 | 37 | Normal | 14 | 9 | 10.5% |
| Phoenix Raceway | 03/08 | 0.358 | 0.440 | 9.459 | 8.811 | 37 | Normal | 23 | 8 | 27.6% |
| Las Vegas Motor Speedway | 03/15 | 0.838 | 0.832 | 4.500 | 5.111 | 36 | Normal | 21 | 9 | 7.5% |
| Darlington Raceway | 03/22 | 0.532 | 0.448 | 7.730 | 8.216 | 37 | Normal | 16 | 8 | 8.9% |
| Martinsville Speedway | 03/29 | 0.787 | 0.803 | 4.865 | 4.757 | 37 | Normal | 8 | 6 | 13.5% |
| Bristol Motor Speedway | 04/12 | 0.623 | 0.604 | 6.378 | 7.135 | 37 | Overtime | 12 | 4 | 14.3% |
| Kansas Speedway | 04/19 | 0.675 | 0.601 | 6.703 | 7.297 | 37 | Overtime | 17 | 7 | 7.3% |
| Talladega Superspeedway | 04/26 | -0.106 | -0.002 | 14.550 | 13.950 | 40 | Normal | 52 | 16 | 16.0% |
| Texas Motor Speedway | 05/03 | 0.426 | 0.414 | 8.158 | 7.895 | 38 | Normal | 23 | 11 | 15.0% |
| Watkins Glen International | 05/10 | 0.524 | 0.473 | 8.158 | 8.842 | 38 | Normal | 6 | 4 | 12.0% |
| Charlotte Motor Speedway | 05/24 | 0.353 | -- | 10.103 | -- | 39 | Shortened | 32 | 13 | 20.1% |
| Nashville Superspeedway | 05/31 | 0.290 | 0.332 | 10.789 | 10.316 | 38 | Normal | 31 | 15 | 25.7% |
| Michigan International Speedway | 06/07 | 0.246 | 0.208 | 10.811 | 11.027 | 37 | Normal | 23 | 11 | 27.0% |
| Pocono Raceway | 06/14 | 0.671 | 0.637 | 6.789 | 7.105 | 38 | Normal | 17 | 11 | 14.4% |
| San Diego Street Course | 06/21 | 0.310 | 0.215 | 9.846 | 10.132 | 39 | Normal | 20 | 13 | 14.7% |
| Sonoma Raceway | 06/28 | 0.572 | 0.617 | 7.389 | 6.778 | 36 | Normal | 8 | 6 | 7.3% |
| Chicagoland Speedway | 07/05 | 0.524 | 0.538 | 7.316 | 7.684 | 38 | Normal | 28 | 13 | 16.1% |
| Atlanta Motor Speedway | 07/12 | 0.551 | 0.528 | 8.053 | 8.474 | 38 | Overtime | 30 | 10 | 18.6% |
📈 Season Accuracy Averages Summary
| Metric / Competitor | Statcar |  Racing Insights |
|---|---|---|
| Spearman Rank Correlation (Higher is Better) | 0.450 | 0.455 |
| Mean Absolute Error (Lower is Better) | 8.64 | 8.60 |